Our Textile Warrant is again booming 16%
Taiwanese analysts often trade stocks with technical analysis, therefore, when they face the major events are also interpret by the same skill or speak mass of fundamental. As the example of the US employment report recently. Many analysts are wrongly considered that the US unemployment rate hit 5.1%, as the lowest rate over the recent seven years, will cause FED increase the interest rates resulting in a bear market for stocks. They really made the big mistake of saying. Even if the US have higher the interest rates (Think about it: with the low unemployment rate and the interest rates are near zero, would it not be rising interest rates? If not, this would sow the risk of inflation in the future. ), this would represent that the US is building a stronger economic foundation to against China’s economic slowdown. As the result of exchange rate depreciation caused by interest rate increasing is a panacea for Taiwan’s Export Stocks.
Many scholars said that “saving the economy could not rely on exchange rate depreciation." If it is not true, why Fai-Nan Perng, the Governor of the Central Bank of Taiwan, was devalued 1 TWD recnetly? Why the Unite States was manage Plaza Accord to greatly depreciate the U.S. dollar in 1985? After Japanese yen has been highly appreciated and Nikkei stock average hit an all-time high, why Janpan’s economy fell into the “lost decade"? I don’t understand why they were saying that. Even if the United States, the leading innovative country, has to devalue its currency in case to save its economy. Taiwan, as a country of manufacturing OEM and ODM, how dare to say this? Taiwan’s economic slowdown was resulted by the leading of Fai-Nan Perng in the second quarter of this year.
Therefore, it is definitely a good news for Taiwan’s economy if the US rise the interest rates causing the devaluation of NT dollar. Although some foreign investors might unload some stocks, but they would only sell these have been affected by “Red supply chain" or “China concept stocks". Of course, this will some how affect the performance of the stock market. However, the future perspective of bull or bear market are not depended on the electronic stock or the direction of Taiex. In most cases, the market index is meaningless. When the TAIEX index is going up it only shows the rising of electronic stock, but it does not mean the electronic stock is the exactly mainstream stock now. Only when TAIEX have significant mainstream stock, bull market appeared. Otherwise, why don’t everybody just compare with the muscle( which means the market value, because the market value is main factor of index. ). (1476) ECLAT have run the bull market for 6 years still this year of 2015. However, you have to be careful if you still following the analysts that only see and trade the electronic stock preparing to catch a falling knife. Because you might not catch the knife, but killing yourself. Because the future perspective of electronic stocks will continually drop leaving not much room in long-term market. However, the mainstream stock of the market sectors still have plenty of room. You can understand by the continually reach a record high price stock of (1476) ECLAT.
However, the worst situation now is that half of the analysts are taking about textile stocks. They are the typical stock market laggards. They used to talk about only electronic stocks having no idea about textile stock. Someone even commanded, like Zong Yao Lu’s reply in 2004, the 25 folds of ECLAT when its price was at NT 200 dollar that, “this is only speculation". These laggards knows nothing about the globalization trend, therefore they could only think about the speculation. However, they are gradually talking about textile stock now. It is not only a big joke, but also the dangerous risk. If you could still remember their prediction about electronic stocks such as (2454) MTK, (2402)ICHIA, (3673)TPK and even (2498) HTC, these stocks now down to the bottom. These laggards become senseless to the market ( After ECLAT have boomed in 6 years, they finally said the textile stock performance well. Are they too unaware to become senseless? )
Some people said it is time to buy electronic stocks, isn’t that correct? Definitely, wrong. Just have a look of (3008) LARGAN. Let me explain with an easy example: Chinese cheongsam is very beautiful, well-design and elegant. The sales should be very well if you sold them in China 100 years ago. Nevertheless, if you are selling them at New York mall of America today, do you still think the sell will be good? Although cheongsam doesn’t change its elegant looking, but cannot make money by the difference of time and space. Although Foxconn was well performed in 1990s, but how about now? This is what called " the new one replaces the old one"
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