Taiwan’s economic growth may not keep in 0%- be aware of becoming the victim.
The third quarter’s condition have not much difference with my prediction. However, I never dared to speak out “0%" economic growth as I am also afraid of that. I have mentioned about “Filipinize" a year ago, and it is in processing now.
One must be careful if he feel complacency about catch a falling knife in electronic stock nowadays.Taiwan electronic stock’s conflict cannot so easily be ended like the situation today, it is only a break. China’s goal is completely take over Taiwan electronic stock’s place with the future transformation of China. We can foresee that though China’s military parade on September 3rd. .It is a necessary trend that China’s military is moving toward high-tech feature, therefore, Chinese must comprehensive develop his owe electronic industry. Do you think China would allow the electronic devices on his aircraft or missile printed MADE IN TAIWAN ? This is what called “Taiwan crisis."And it is just the beginning, not the end. How can China develop its high precision military industry without first developing a foundry which can replace or compete with TSMC? However, short-term market has some spotlight expect textile stock, because the US real estate market is getting better now.
Currently, the US economy is doing better with low interest rate and strong dollar. This is very similar as the situation of Taiwan and the United States in 2001 to 2002. Let’s take a look of the price of Pultegroup, it has not gone up for more than two years. This shows that we still can look forward to the performance of real estate in the long term process. Although Taiwan real estate’s competitiveness has gone down, but it still has some bright spot.
Over the past 20 years, global economy is basically develop by the rise of China with the support of the United States. For example, Taiwan’s digital era has began after the United States made the RMB depreciated 75% in the 1990s. The United States dropped interest rates making great efforts to build China, in case to start the raw materials era after year 2000. After entering the 2010s, I already warned investors that the help of the United States toward China is over. In another hand, the United States is return to the Asia-Pacific region suppressing China’s growth prospects going forward. You can see the result as gold and oil have gradually fell. China’s GDP has significantly gone down (even with China official’s given “boast" numbers.) Therefore, I have warned investors to be aware of the collapse of electronic stock since 2013. In deed, it is burning this year, and not yet finished. It is said that China’s GDP is certainly not even close to 4% (according to the calculation of electricity usage report). The real number is much lower than Chinese official has boasted. China obviously understand the fact as well. Therefore, it put a lot of effect on its future industrial transformation, as well Taiwanese electronic industry has been gradually refined. For these Taiwanese electronic industries, they will be saved if they can still survive in the next five or six years
Do not trade base on the line patterns between these years. The major shareholders are ready to get out of the tragedy, so they have made the good looking patterns trapping individuals. For example, they are boasting about solar system today. In fact, solar system just like panels, cannot be good at all times. They might have some opportunity to rise a little, but have possibility to be tie-up if without concern. Therefore, don’t throw your money only seeing the price is going up. European and American manufacturers have released from the last trap for nearly 30 years since 1970s. Do you want to be the next one? As HTC is limiting up after been out of (0050) Taiwan ETF, but its problem is not yet solved. Do not catch the falling knife for there aren’t easy money to make.
It is said that there are many day traders today causing newspaper reports that someone was hung-up because of (3008) LARGAN. These people love to do the day trade, unfortunately don’t know how. In fact, there are tips to trade in the short-term market: buying in bull market; shorting in bear market. However, if one don’t know how to choose the right stocks in bull market, how can he be a day trader? During this period, the flat cannot be sold. Because not every securities have standby warrant to do the day trade (For those have warrant for margin usually are big securities with high cost, but the low cost is the requirement for day or short trade. Therefore, this is very contradictory.) Like (3008) LARGAN has fallen into bear market, if one looking for this kind of stocks to trade he obviously would get into the big trouble. However, many day traders used to do that no matter it has already became bear market – they still keep the same stocks. If they understand changing to (1476)ECLAT, they could avoid some problems and risks.
We were forced to sell short only under the condition of market collapse a while ago. We sold short of MERRY, TPK and HTC (by calling warrants) earning 5 times of profit. The day trade has stopped rising after the opportunity time is over. Day traders cannot make easy money everyday. But many people don’t understand this, always doing day trade or short-term. That is why they lose money.
Theoretically, if day trader makes money in every trade although only earning 1%, he would gain thousand trillions’ profit in five year. Of course, not even the ghosts would believe this lie, but people does. Many teach how to do the day trade, so do many learned. However, the future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.
Obviously, if one cautiously doing the day trade he would still earning profit more than the long-term investor. Many think I have been a long-term investor since the beginning. In fact, I have been a day trader for more than 10 years. During the process, I gradually realized an “surviving" strategy. But I thought lately, it is better to be a long-term investor than just a survivor. Because it is easy to be a day trader earning no profit even in bull market. Recently, you can see many day traders continually calling stop loss – it is the better condition . Some even been tie-up, and result in tragedy. As for us, the long-term traders, earning big money in bull market; keeping from loss by sell short the stocks in bear market. That is why we could still earning profit 5 times with TPK recently.
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